For more than a decade, Republicans have held Nebraska’s two U.S. Senate seats.
Independent candidate Dan Osborn believes he can break the grip. Osborn, a 49-year-old former labor leader who has never held political office, says there are signs Nebraskans “are ready for a change.” But U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer, the Republican incumbent who won her last race with 58% of the vote, said she isn’t fazed, pointing to polling in her prior races that underestimated her as well as her campaign’s widespread door knocking efforts.
Even the possibility that someone could knock out an incumbent in red Nebraska has national politics watchers taking notice. Right now, Democrats control the U.S. Senate but face a tough election map to hold on to that power.
Late last month, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed its rating of the Nebraska race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” By contrast, it rates the Nebraska race between Republican U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts and Democrat Preston Love Jr. “solid Republican.”
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“This is probably the most surprising race of the cycle,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor with Cook Political Report. “(Osborn) is such a different type of politician. He’s a blue-collar worker — a mechanic. I think Fischer is a lower-profile senator who isn’t as well known.”
“It’s clearly a race that’s competitive,” Taylor added.
A labor strike thrust Osborn into the spotlight
Before 2021, Osborn didn’t have political aspirations.
Dan Osborn, independent candidate for U.S. Senate, announced Wednesday he would not accept political or party endorsements.
A 1994 graduate of Omaha’s Roncalli Catholic High School, Osborn followed in his parents’ footsteps by enlisting in the U.S. Navy, where he served four years. Osborn also served in the Nebraska Army National Guard.
After his Navy service, Osborn got a job as a mechanic at Kellogg Co.’s cereal production plant in Omaha in 2004. A colleague urged him to become a member of the union representing Kellogg employees. Osborn did, and eventually became president of the local chapter of the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union.
And there, Osborn was thrust into the limelight.
From early October 2021 to late December 2021, Osborn, along with other union leaders at four Kellogg plants, led a strike against the food manufacturer. Osborn said the 77-day saga opened his eyes to the lengths corporations will go to protect their profit margins.
“During COVID, we were working seven days a week, 12 hours a day, as essential workers,” he said in a recent interview.
Dan Osborn, independent running for U.S. Senate, speaks during a candidate forum at Florence City Hall in Omaha on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024.
Before the strike, Osborn said he and other union leaders thought it would be a “no-brainer” that Kellogg executives would reward the employees who kept the plants running during the height of the pandemic. Instead, he said, Kellogg executives tried to limit their benefits and pay.
“That opened my eyes to the world around me,” Osborn said. “Before, it was just ‘go to work, pay your bills, keep going back to work.’”
Osborn said what he saw from Kellogg’s was just one small part of what he believes is a rigged system fostered by many elected officials.
“I don’t feel like there’s anybody like me in the United States Senate,” he said.
Osborn is seeking to become the first independent U.S. senator in Nebraska since George Norris. But even Norris, a 30-year senator, wasn’t always politically independent. Norris, who championed progressive causes in Congress, was a member of the Republican Party until 1936 — 23 years after he was first sworn into the Senate.
Fischer says third term will give Nebraska greater influence
After Fischer won in her first U.S. Senate campaign in 2012, she planned on serving no more than two terms.
Senator Deb Fischer announces over a dozen labor unions and trade associations endorsing her campaign
After all, she said, that’s how it works in the Nebraska Legislature, where the 73-year-old, who spent decades living and working on a ranch in the Valentine area, served two terms.
What works in Nebraska does not work in Congress, the incumbent senator said she discovered.
“It didn’t take me long … to figure out that the Senate runs on seniority,” Fischer said.
If re-elected, Fischer would be Nebraska’s first U.S. senator to win a third term since the late Jim Exon won his race in 1990. Not having a veteran senator representing Nebraska’s interests has been a detriment, Fischer said.
Sen. Deb Fischer applauds after taking a group photo with supporters at a campaign event in Omaha on Sept. 28.
“That hasn’t helped Nebraska in the influence that we could have for our state,” she said.
As she finishes her second term, Fischer says she’s in prime position to give Nebraska a strong voice in Congress partly due to her positions on several Senate committees, including Armed Services, Agriculture, Commerce and Appropriations.
Fischer voted in favor of the latest reauthorization of the National Defense Authorization Act, which allocates millions of dollars toward improvements at Offutt Air Force Base and the Nebraska National Guard, nuclear deterrence and sizable pay increases for Defense Department personnel.
Fischer also highlighted her willingness to reach across the aisle and work with senators to pass legislation benefiting families.
She was one of just two members of Nebraska’s all-Republican congressional delegation to vote in favor of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act — a bill considered to be a signature accomplishment for U.S. President Joe Biden, a Democrat.
Fischer also highlighted her work with U.S. Sen. Angus King, an independent from Maine who caucuses with Democrats, to pass a bill making paid family leave permanent. She said she also worked with Democratic Sens. Tammy Duckworth and Brian Schatz on legislation to establish mother’s rooms at airports and protections for women who are domestic violence victims.
“You don’t get anything done in the Senate unless you do work across the aisle,” Fischer said.
‘Truly independent’ vs. One of the ‘smartest’ in the Senate
As much as Fischer emphasizes her bipartisan work, she has sought to tie Osborn’s candidacy to liberal positions and figures.
In a recent TV ad, Fischer’s campaign said Osborn “supports abortion up to the moment of birth” and supports U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent who supports the principles of Democratic Socialism and has twice run for the Democratic nomination for president.
Osborn has said her and supporters’ ads are false and disparage him. He demanded they cease.
While the Fischer campaign publicly brushed off Osborn’s call, the incumbent senator modified her criticism of Osborn’s abortion position at a press conference three days after his demand. During that press conference, Fischer said Osborn supports “late-term abortions with no restrictions.”
During a town hall session at the Backline Comedy Theatre in downtown Omaha in September, Osborn outlined his positions that stood in contrast to what Fischer’s campaign has claimed he believes.
The Osborn campaign promoted the session as a “debate” — a tongue-in-cheek reference to Fischer refusing to debate Osborn. In August, Fischer told radio station KFAB debates are little more than venues for “short sound bites” that are not conducive to answers on complex subjects.
Osborn told the Backline crowd of around 50 that, if elected, he would vote to codify the abortion protections that were in the now-overturned Roe v. Wade.
Osborn’s platform outlines his support on a mix of conservative and liberal positions. In addition to advocating for labor rights, Osborn said he supports a secure border and increased funding for public school systems.
While the crowd at the Backline appeared to lean Democratic, Osborn said he has drawn crowds across the state that have drawn a mix of Democrats and Republicans sporting Make America Great Again hats.
“We can agree on the major issues — the kitchen-table issues — that need to be addressed,” he said.
Osborn has rejected endorsements from political parties and politicians. His decision rankled officials with the Nebraska Democratic Party, which does not have a candidate in the race. He also has refrained from endorsing candidates in other races.
“I just want to remain independent,” Osborn said.
If elected to the Senate, he said, he doesn’t plan to caucus with either the Republicans or the Democrats.
Osborn’s plan to not caucus with either party drew criticism from Fischer. Fischer said Osborn “needs a civics lesson” since senators get committee assignments by caucusing.
Taylor, from Cook Political Report, said some Senate candidates in prior election cycles have said they wouldn’t caucus with either party. She added none of those candidates went on to win so the possibility hasn’t been tested and that Osborn’s plan, if he wins, “could be a dicey prospect.”
Osborn’s political affiliation has been called into question by Fischer and her allies, who have repeatedly labeled Osborn as a Democrat. Osborn has denies ever being a Democrat. His voter registration history from the Sarpy County Election Commission Office supports his claim. The file shows Osborn has been a registered nonpartisan in Nebraska since at least 2008.
Democrat Kevin Sweeney said he understands Osborn’s position. The Omaha man has volunteered 60 hours per week to Osborn’s campaign since meeting the candidate around August. While Sweeney agrees with Osborn on many issues, he strongly disagrees with his stance of not supporting a ban on assault weapons.
Still, Sweeney said, Osborn offers the best chance to defeat a Republican senator.
“I don’t think anybody in Nebraska with a ‘D’ next to their name has a chance in hell of getting elected to the Senate,” Sweeney said, adding Osborn is “truly an independent.”
To Fischer and her supporters, Osborn is the political equivalent of a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
“I’ve always appreciated when I’ve run against Democrats that they speak to the issues. They know who they are and they don’t try to hide from it,” Fischer said. “With my opponent now, he says one thing in private and then tries to present another view to the public. I don’t think Nebraskans are going to be fooled by that.”
Fischer’s supporters say she has been a steady hand, delivered on her campaign promises and has displayed considerable knowledge in the Senate.
“I just think she’s one of the smartest people we have in the U.S. Senate,” said Nancy McCabe, an Omaha resident. “If you happen to watch her in a committee on TV, (you can see) she knows what she’s talking about. She asks thoughtful questions. I just appreciate that in our senators.”
Money pours into the race
Osborn has outside support for his bid.
One super PAC, Retire Career Politicians, has raised just over $3.6 million in support of Osborn, according to campaign watchdog OpenSecrets, making up about 90% of the outside support for his campaign.
Taylor said Retire Career Politicians is funded partly by the Sixteen Thirty Fund, which supports Democratic causes. ActBlue, a Democratic fundraising platform, has also helped collect donations for Osborn.
The Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety, a super PAC, has also spent more than $440,000 in support of Osborn’s candidacy, according to OpenSecrets.
Heartland Resurgence has led the ad spending fight against Osborn’s campaign. OpenSecrets said the Republican-aligned super PAC has spent nearly $1.3 million opposing Osborn. Another Republican super PAC, Ending Spending Action Fund, has spent about $885,000 opposing Osborn.
Overall, Fischer’s campaign has a larger war chest than Osborn’s. As of June 30, her campaign had raised $6.2 million and spent $3.8 million. Osborn’s campaign had raised $1.6 million and spent just under $1 million.
While acknowledging that PACs help support his campaign, Osborn said he tries to make sure campaign donations can be related to working people.
“If I can’t relate it back to working people, I’m not going to take your money,” he said. “We’ve given money back. (Billionaire) George Soros gave us money and we gave it back.”
Fischer’s Republican allies are unexpectedly playing defense. In late September, ad tracking firm AdImpact posted on X that the National Republican Senatorial Committee coordinated a $172,000 advertising reservation with Fischer’s campaign. The firm noted Republican groups, as of Sept. 26, have budgeted $1.7 million on future ad reservations in the Senate race.
“This should be a safe seat,” Taylor said. “The fact that national Republicans are having to spend here is certainly a headache they didn’t expect at the beginning of the year.”
University of Nebraska at Omaha political science professor Randy Adkins said the race is unusual in that Fischer appears to be in a competitive race despite not being dogged by any scandals or political headwinds that would traditionally hamper incumbents’ reelection prospects.
After narrowly trailing in most publicly released polls, through the middle of September, Osborn recorded his first leads in three polls released in recent weeks. Most of the polls have been connected, in some way, to a campaign rather than independently conducted.
One poll, conducted by Survey USA and sponsored by Osborn’s campaign, showed Osborn leading Fischer 45% to 44%. Another poll conducted by The Independent Center showed Osborn with a 5-percentage-point lead over Fischer, 47% to 42%.
A July internal poll from Fischer’s campaign, which was conducted by Torchlight Strategies, gave the incumbent senator a commanding 26 percentage point lead over Osborn. An October poll conducted by the same firm showed Fischer with a six percentage point lead, 48% to 42%.
Polling also shows a fluid race. For example, about one-fourth of the voters surveyed in the Survey USA poll said they don’t have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Osborn. The poll showed 10% of voters don’t have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Fischer.
“I think many voters are in the process of getting to know him,” Adkins said.
Fischer points to her own electoral history of some polling not matching the election results.
She cited a World-Herald poll conducted in October 2012 that showed her with a narrow 3-percentage-point lead over Democratic nominee and former U.S. Sen. Bob Kerrey. Fischer won that race by almost 16 percentage points.
Fischer also continues to maintain a strong on-the-ground campaign with volunteers. On Sept. 28, about 60 volunteers ate pizza and rallied at her Omaha campaign headquarters in preparation for a door-knocking event. A campaign spokesperson for Fischer said the campaign has knocked on more than 80,000 doors around Nebraska since March.
“I always run like I’m 20 points behind,” Fischer said.
Osborn, meanwhile, expects to maintain his momentum as he continues to hold campaign events around Nebraska.
“Certainly, with an Osborn win in November, it could be the start of something special,” he said. “I think it’s a start of something that can give government back to the people.”
