El Niño is rapidly developing in the Pacific Ocean and may become a rare, historically strong “Super” El Niño by fall or winter, according to the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The updated forecast shows an 82% chance of El Niño forming between May and July, with the event likely to persist through the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. The chances of it lasting through winter have increased to 96%, nearly guaranteeing its occurrence. The latest update marks a significant shift from April’s forecast, which predicted neutral conditions, or the cooler La Niña, through June. Recent data shows that sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific are quickly warming by about 0.5°C above normal, a key indicator used by the NOAA to gauge El Niño's strength. When temperatures rise above 0.5°C for an extended period, weak El Niño conditions are considered to be developing. To be considered a very strong or super El Niño, temperatures need to be more than 2°C above average. El Niño is a natural climate cycle caused by the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which alters atmospheric wind patterns and influences global weather. It occurs approximately every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months. Currently, no level of El Niño has more than a 37% chance of occurring before year's end.
