Outlook Day 2 8-14-19

DAWSON COUNTY — Unwelcome news to some, but central Nebraska may again see more severe weather on Thursday, Aug. 15.

According to the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., scattered severe storms are expected across the central and northern plains. A low amplitude area of low pressure, a shortwave trough, will move east-southeastward into the northern plains. The low pressure area will deepen as a cold front moves across eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and central South Dakota.

This will cause elevated thunderstorms during the morning hours of Thursday, this in turn will determine where the greatest pockets of atmospheric instability will be. These unstable areas will be prime locations for afternoon thunderstorms.

Dew points ahead of the cold front will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Convergence of moisture in the vicinity of the front will lead to surface-based thunderstorms developing in the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms are expected to organize and move southeastward across the plains. A mesoscale convective system, MCS, may develop in the evening hours.

 Jeff Kelly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Hastings said thunderstorms which develop tomorrow afternoon could become severe and the main threats are wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail.

Storms in central Nebraska will be moving in a northwest to southeast direction. Kelly said MCS development is not expected to impact Dawson County, Cozad was impacted by a bow echo in an MCS system on Sunday which caused damage throughout the community. MSC development Thursday night is expected to start south and east of Hastings, Kelley said.

The SPC day two convective outlook mentions possible supercells developing and an isolated tornado risk. Kelley said tornado development on Thursday is unlikely but not impossible.

With the current information Kelley said an isolated tornado could not be ruled out southeast of Hastings, but noted the low level winds needed for tornado development are lacking this time of year. Kelly also did not expect many, if any, discrete supercells and said the main storm development will be general thunderstorms.

All of central Nebraska and part of the Panhandle are under a slight risk for  severe weather, a two out five. These outlooks are issued by the SPC.

Keep an eye on the forecast as conditions from morning thunderstorms will greatly influence how storms form in the afternoon.

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