Aug. 20 Day 1 outlook

LEXINGTON  — A descending cold front will be responsible for strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight and early tomorrow morning across the region.

According to the National Weather Service Hastings, there is still uncertainty to the timing and location of any storms which will occur this afternoon. Numerical models hint at scattered convective development along and north of the I-80 corridor in central Nebraska.

Convection occurring this evening is also uncertain, but there is higher confidence there will be storms tonight, especially after midnight. The main question is where exactly they will track. Different models show a line of storms tracking much farther north, while some show storms heading right south central Nebraska.

Training thunderstorms could be possible , the same type of thunderstorms which were responsible for the July 8-9 flooding. According to the NWS forecast discussion, 50 miles either side of Ord or York has seen 200-400 percent of normal precipitation over the past 30 days. The whole area is very susceptible to flooding. Flood watches have not been issued until the track of the thunderstorms becomes clearer.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., has issued a slight risk of severe weather, a two out of five, has been issued for a swath across the state from the Panhandle, south central and south eastern Nebraska.

Storms are expected to form off the Front Range of the Rockies and then develop into storm clusters as the low level jet and warm advection strengthens. Elevated storms are expected to move across the state overnight with the threat of isolated large hail, damaging winds and possible flooding.

The hazardous weather outlook issued at 11:55 a.m. today by NWS Hastings reads in part, “Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across areas south of Interstate 80, then across the whole outlook area tonight. Some of the storms tonight could be strong to severe with hail near the size of golf balls and damaging winds near 60 MPH the primary hazards. Additionally, depending on where the thunderstorms set up, any training storms could result in torrential rainfall and flooding. At this time, the best chance for training thunderstorms looks to be along and north of Interstate 80.”

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